Of course, not everyone believes the bond bull run is over. Goldman's Allison Nathan asks PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager Greg Peters what he thinks...
No, the bond bull run is not over. Ten-year Treasury yields have obviously adjusted higher since the lows of September but I don't believe they are poised to move higher in a sustained manner.
There are still tremendous secular disinflationary forces in the world, including worsening demographics, which I view as critically important, as well as the outsized debt burden, both of which will ultimately constrain economic growth and cap bond yields.
Of course, cyclically, growth and inflation have increased. But I would think about it this way: Against a backdrop of tremendous historic central bank monetary support, growth and inflation have both finally just come off the bottom. For sure, the economic fundamentals are as good as they have been in a long time - yet 10-year yields are still below 3%.