A chart of bankruptcy filings (using weekly data from Bloomberg's BCY function) and credit spreads I used in last Thursday's MacroScope column generated a lot of reader interest. This chart, below, shows that filings for bankruptcies have risen sharply despite credit spreads idling for most of this year. Previous rapid rises in filings have been preceded by a widening in credit spreads.

As some readers suggested, perhaps credit spreads are more reflective of what's actually happening in markets, and the flare in bankruptcy filings is a false flag?

However, it does look like credit spreads might be the outlier. The bankruptcy filings compiled from Bloomberg data is weekly, while Chapter 11 data is quarterly and lagging. As the chart below shows, the weekly data leads the official Chapter 11 series.