US natural gas markets responded early Friday, jumping nearly 5% on expectations of a colder start to the new year and increased heating fuel demand. 

"BIG overnight colder trends on the EPS. The key here is the tropospheric polar vortex sitting over the Hudson Bay. The ability for storms/fronts to pull in cold air will be amplified and this run highlights that. Stages set for a few memorable cold snaps in January of 2025," BAMWX wrote on X. 

BAMWX noted, "In addition to the Tropospheric Polar Vortex - one key to keeping the cold around for an extended time is to then move the Stratospheric Polar Vortex towards North America to ensure a consistent supply of cold air down the road," adding, "Both the ECMWF and GEFS are showing that now." 

BAMWX's Kirk Hinz commented on the new weather models, pointing to a very serious cold start to the year for the eastern half of the US. He said, "All systems "go" on Arctic air dumping into the US early to mid-Jan."