Institutional desks, including UBS, have ramped up warnings about drought, fertilizer shortages, and what these current-day issues could morph into for the food supply chain later this year.

The good news: parts of the central U.S. may finally see some weather relief, with several days of rain in the forecast. Whether that will be enough to materially improve soil moisture conditions remains the key question for agricultural desks this week.

"The upcoming weather pattern in the United States, fueled by a strong subtropical jet stream, will bring some beneficial rain to the drought-stricken South," meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X, adding, "But it will be far from a drought-breaker."

Noll is correct: it will take many more rounds of storms to fully erase the drought, especially given what UBS analyst Jonathan Pingle told clients last week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since records started in 1895, and March was the third-driest month recorded, regardless of time of year, behind only the famed 1930s Dust Bowl: July and August 1934. Water levels on the Mississippi look fine, and seasonal lows are typically in the fall, but river levels in Memphis sit 24 feet below this time last year.

Here's The Weather Channel's forecast for rain this week across the Midwest and Southeast:

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday