Through thick and thin economists remain optimistic. Today, despite an easily predictable decline in retail sales, economists did not see the decline coming. Instead, Huge Miss in Retail Sales Seen as a Blip.

U.S. retail sales recorded their largest decline in 11 months in December as demand fell almost across the board, tempering expectations for a sharp acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

Economists, however, cautioned against reading too much into the surprise weakness, noting that holiday spending made it difficult to smooth December data for seasonal fluctuations.

"Faulty seasonal adjustments from shifts in holiday spending patterns are probably more to blame for the December decline," said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG in New York. "Looking at the last three months, spending is not collapsing."

Bricklin Dwyer, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York, said fewer post-Black Friday shopping days in November than normal threw off the so-called seasonal factor used to adjust the data, resulting in a lower December sales number.