This sudden surge, however, is not a total surprise as we have noted the seasonal patterns in US economic data previously.
So why does this pattern exist - and why is it particularly strong in recent weeks?
Simple - as OpenTheBooks.com details - it is a reflection of the Federal Government's "Use-It-Or-Lose-It" Spending Spree...
In the final month of the fiscal year, federal agencies scramble to spend what's left in their annual budget. Agencies worry spending less than their budget allows might prompt Congress to appropriate less money in the next fiscal year. To avoid this, federal agencies choose to embark on an annual shopping spree rather than admit they can operate on less.
This is the "use-it-or-lose-it" spending phenomenon, and it happens every year.
And that surge in spending coincides with this sudden 'surprise' burst to the upside.