A whopping 39.7 percent of Silver's scenarios in the battleground states are a clean sweep by Trump or Harris.

The single most likely scenario is a 24.4 percent chance that Trump gets a clean sweep.

That the second most likely case of a 15.3 percent sweep by Harris is an indication that Silver believe all of the polls may be off in the same direction undercounting or overcounting one party or the other.

Electoral College Votes

Harris does not need a clean sweep of the battleground states to win, but she probably does need a clean sweep of the Blue Wall.

It's an interesting setup. Many will disagree with Silver's dice here.

But assume Silver is wrong somewhere on the lead chart. Is it Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Nevada.

Silver's dice say Trump is more likely to lose Nevada than any of the other battleground states. Nevada is the least important state to Trump.